Predictors of recidivism amongst police recorded family violence perpetrators

The Crime Statistics Agency has today released its fourth ‘in brief’ paper, which assesses how well the risk factors Victoria Police consider for all reported family incidents predict recidivism.

The paper examines a cohort of alleged perpetrators with a family incident recorded in the 2010–11 financial year, and the risk factors that were more likely to be present if they were subsequently recorded for one or more additional family incidents in the period to March 2015. The analysis identified a number of factors statistically associated with recidivism. These included:

  • gender
  • age
  • the alleged perpetrator’s relationship with the affected family member (or alleged victim); and
  • the perpetrator’s history of contact with the police or the criminal justice system.


In particular, the more prior family violence incidents an alleged perpetrator had recorded, the more likely they were to go on to perpetrate further family violence incidents. Prior recorded offences for breach family violence orders were also associated with increased risk of recidivism.

The full research paper can be found here (External link).