Spotlight: Motor vehicle theft

Motor vehicle theft offences have increased in Victoria in 2014 by 11.5 per cent compared to 2013. In the 12 months to December 2014, Victoria Police recorded 16,686 motor vehicle theft offences across the state, a rate of 285.5 motor vehicle theft offences per 100,000 people in Victoria.

In terms of volume, the ABS motor vehicle census reported that there were 4,483,093 vehicles registered in Victoria as at 31 January 2014. In 2014, 18,097 vehicles were reported as stolen to police, meaning that the number of cars stolen represents approximately 0.4 per cent of the total number of cars registered across the state.

Method

Data used in this spotlight were derived from the Victoria Police Law Enforcement Assistance Program (LEAP) database, and reflect criminal offences, alleged offender incidents and victim reports based on crime reported to or detected by Victoria Police. Data covers the five-year period between 1 January 2010 and 31 December 2014.

Motor vehicle theft includes thefts of any motor vehicle, including cars, motorbikes, trucks, scooters, farming vehicles, and any other motorised vehicle as outlined in the Victorian Summary Offences Act 1986.

Trends over time

The graph below shows the number of motor vehicle theft offences recorded by police in Victoria between January 2010 and December 2014. Both the medium-term (5 year) and short-term trends (2 year) showed statistically significant increases in the number of offences recorded, increasing by 3.4 per cent compared to 2 years ago, and 16.5 per cent compared to five years ago.

Motor vehicle theft offences in Victoria: 5 years trend, January 2010 to December 2014

Month of the year

The graph below shows the trends in motor vehicle theft offences in Victoria by month. This figure shows that the number of offences recorded by police fluctuates from month to month, but without any obvious seasonal pattern. In 2014, the month with the highest prevalence of motor vehicle theft was August, with 1,512 offences recorded within the month. The months with the lowest prevalence of motor vehicle theft were September and December, with 1,300 and 1,308 offences recorded respectively.

Motor vehicle theft offences recorded by month, January to December 2014

Makes of cars stolen

The table below shows the number of motor vehicles stolen in Victoria in 2014 by vehicle make. Holdens were the most commonly stolen make of vehicle, and comprised 15.4 per cent of all vehicles stolen in 2014. This is consistent with previous years where Holdens have been the most commonly stolen vehicle in Victoria every year since 2010.

The five most commonly stolen makes of vehicle (Holden, Nissan, Toyota, Ford and Honda) represented 60.5 per cent of all vehicles stolen across Victoria in 2014.  

Top five most commonly stolen vehicles by make in Victoria, January to December 2014

A full breakdown of vehicles stolen by vehicle make in Victoria is available in the motor vehicle theft data tables

Location of offences

The map below shows the density of motor vehicle theft offences by Local Government Area (LGA). The LGAs with darker shading represent areas with higher numbers of motor vehicle thefts in 2014.

Motor vehicle theft offences by Local Government Area, January to December 2014

The LGA with the highest number of motor vehicle theft offences was Hume, which had 1,064 motor vehicles recorded as stolen in 2014. Inner suburban LGAs including Darebin, Brimbank and Moreland saw a greater number of motor vehicle thefts when compared to regional LGAs. The top 5 LGAs with the highest number of motor vehicle thefts made up 28% of all motor vehicle theft offences recorded in Victoria in 2014.

Motor vehicle theft offences by top 5 Local Government Areas, January to December 2014

Investigation status and recovery rate

The table below shows the number of theft offences by investigation status as at 18 January 2015, when the data was extracted from LEAP. As at 18 January 2015, 72.6 per cent of motor vehicle theft offences had an investigation status of Unsolved. This is consistent over time, and the rate of reporting for motor vehicle theft offences is likely to be high because there is incentive for victims to report the offence, as insurance agencies generally require a police report to process a claim.

The next most common investigation status for motor vehicle theft was arrest, with 2,751 offences resulting in an arrest, and makes up 16.2 per cent of the total number of offences recorded in 2014.

Motor vehicle theft offences by investigation status, as at 18 January 2015, January to December 2014

Other includes: penalty infringement notice, not authorised, complaint withdrawn, summons not authorised, no offence disclosed, offender processed, warrant issued, notice to appear, presentment and other investigation statuses

The number of stolen vehicles recovered by Victoria Police in 2014 was 11,090, which equates to 61.3 per cent of the total number of cars stolen in that year. The number of vehicles recovered may not however be reflective of the number of vehicles stolen and recovered in the same year, as some vehicles recovered in 2014 may have been reported stolen in previous years.

Age and sex of alleged offenders

More than 80 per cent of offenders proceeded against for motor vehicle theft offences in 2014 were male (83%). Overall, offenders aged between 15 and 24 accounted for 54 per cent of all offenders of motor vehicle theft. For male alleged offender incidents, the most common age group was 15 - 19, making up 40.4% of all male offenders. For females, the most common age group was also 15 - 19, comprising 30% of all female offenders.

Offender incidents for motor vehicle theft, proportion by sex and age groups, January to December 2014

Summary

During the calendar year of 2014, motor vehicle thefts in Victoria increased compared to the previous 12 months, in line with short-term (2 year) and medium-term (5 year) upward trends for this offence group. The local government areas with the highest number of offences recorded were the same as in previous years, with Hume LGA recording the highest number of offences, but Darebin LGA recording the highest rate per 100,000 population.

The highest number of motor vehicle theft offences was recorded in August, and the most commonly stolen vehicles were Holdens, making up more than 15 per cent of total cars reported stolen in 2014. While nearly three-quarters of all offences remained unsolved as at January 2015, those offenders that were proceeded against by police were most likely to be male, and under the age of 24.

References

1. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2015), Motor Vehicle Census, Australia, 31 Jan 2014 (cat. No. 9309.0), Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.

2. Australian Bureau of Statistics (2011), Measuring Victims of Crime: A Guide to Using Administrative and Survey Data (cat. No. 4500.0.55.001), Australian Bureau of Statistics, Canberra.